»Ë»Ñ Æ÷·³

[MarketWatch] Áõ½Ã´Â ¹Ù´ÚÀ» Ä£°ÍÀÏ±î ¾Æ´Ò±î?2

 

¸¶ÄÏ¿öÄ¡¿¡ ¿Ã¶ó¿Â ±ÛÀÔ´Ï´Ù.

 

 

MarketWatch ¿ø¹®:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/whether-or-not-a-bottom-is-in-heres-what-will-ride-to-the-stock-markets-rescue-over-12-months-one-strategist-forecasts-11646912961

 

 

Whether or not a bottom is in, here¡¯s what will ride to the stock market¡¯s rescue over 12 months, one strategist forecasts

 


Critical information for the trading day

https://images.mktw.net/im-502085?width=620&size=1.5041128084606346 620w, https://images.mktw.net/im-502085?width=639&size=1.5041128084606346 639w, https://images.mktw.net/im-502085?width=700&size=1.5041128084606346 700w, https://images.mktw.net/im-502085?width=700&size=1.5041128084606346&pixel_ratio=1.5 1050w, https://images.mktw.net/im-502085?width=700&size=1.5041128084606346&pixel_ratio=2 1400w, https://images.mktw.net/im-502085?width=700&size=1.5041128084606346&pixel_ratio=3 2100w" sizes="(max-width: 639px) 100vw, (max-width: 979px) 620px, (max-width: 1299px) 540px, 700px" src="https://images.mktw.net/im-502085?width=700&height=465" alt="" title="" style="box-sizing: inherit; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: absolute; top: 0px; left: 0px; width: 940px;">

Has the 30-year bond been likened to a cowboy before?

 

So, is this it? After the powerful 2.6% rebound for the S&P 500 SPX on Wednesday, is the bottom in?

¼ö¿äÀÏ, S&P 500ÀÌ °­ÇÏ°Ô 2.6% ¹ÝµîÇߴµ¥, ½ÃÀåÀÌ ¹Ù´ÚÀ» Ä£ °ÍÀϱî?

 

 

Arguing yes is Mark Newton, head of technical strategy at Fundstrat, who notes that while huge rallies are normally to be expected within big downtrends, this move was accompanied by a nearly 5-to-1 breadth. He says the 4,250 mark on the S&P 500 was an important line in the sand, and that if Treasury yields rise from here, that could give a boost, given that financials are the third-largest sector in the S&P 500. Newton says there isn¡¯t evidence of true capitulation, but the recent negative retail sentiment has helped drive a near-term bottom.

 

¸¶Å© ´ºÆ° Æݵ彺Ʈ·§(Fundstrat) ±â¼úÀûÀü·«Ã¥ÀÓÀÚ´Â ±×·¸´Ù°í »ý°¢ÇÑ´Ù. ÀϹÝÀûÀ¸·Î Ä¿´Ù¶õ ÇÏÇâ Ãß¼¼ ³»¿¡¼­µµ Å©°Ô ¹ÝµîÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖÀ¸³ª, À̹ø¿¡´Â ¾à 5-1ÀÇ ½ÃÀåÆø(breadth)ÀÌ µ¿¹ÝµÆ´Ù°í ´ºÆ°ÀÌ ¾ð±ÞÇß´Ù. S&P 500 Áö¼ö¿¡ À־ 4,250Æ÷ÀÎÆ®°¡ Áß¿äÇÑ ÁöÁ¡À̶ó°í ÇÑ´Ù. ±×¸®°í ¹Ì±¹ ±¹Ã¤ ±Ý¸®°¡ Çö ¼öÁØ¿¡¼­ ¿Ã¶ó°£´Ù¸é, ±ÝÀ¶ÁÖ°¡ S&P 500¿¡¼­ 3¹ø°·Î Å« ¼½ÅÍÀ̱⠶§¹®¿¡ ½ÃÀåÀ» ÁöÁöÇÒ °Å¶ó°í ´ºÆ°ÀÌ ¼³¸íÇß´Ù. ÁøÁ¤ÇÑ Ç׺¹ÀÇ Áõ°Å´Â ¾øÁö¸¸, ÃÖ±Ù¿¡ ºÎÁ¤ÀûÀ̾ú´ø °³ÀÎ ÅõÀÚÀÚ ½É¸®°¡ ´Ü±âÀûÀ¸·Î ½ÃÀåÀÇ ¹Ù´Ú Çü¼º¿¡ µµ¿òÀÌ µÆ´Ù°í ´ºÆ°ÀÌ ÀüÇß´Ù.

 

By contrast, Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research says stocks may fall further in the short-term. Unlike the COVID-19 pandemic, when governments unleashed tax cuts and spending increases, this time they are sanctioning Russia, which will also hurt their domestic economies. The other big difference is that this time monetary policy is tightening rather than loosening, as the Federal Reserve readies the first of what it says will be multiple interest-rate rises. He also worries about another wave of COVID-19 coming from Europe¡¯s largest refugee crisis in decades.

 

ÀÌ¿Í´Â ´ëÁ¶ÀûÀ¸·Î BCA¸®¼­Ä¡(BCA Research)ÀÇ ´Ùºí Á¶½¬´Â ´Ü±âÀûÀ¸·Î Áõ½Ã°¡ ´õ ³»·Á°¥ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù°í º»´Ù. Á¤ºÎµéÀÌ ¼¼±ÝÀ» ÁÙÀÌ°í ÁöÃâÀ» ´Ã·È´ø COVID-19 ÆÒµ¥¹Í ¶§¿Í´Â ´Þ¸®, À̹ø¿¡´Â Á¤ºÎµéÀÌ ·¯½Ã¾Æ¸¦ Á¦ÀçÇÏ°í Àִµ¥, ÀÌ·± Á¶Ä¡°¡ Á¦À縦 °¡ÇÏ´Â ±¹°¡µéÀÇ °æÁ¦µµ Ÿ°ÝÀ» ÁÙ °ÍÀÌ´Ù. ¶Ç ´Ù¸¥ Áß¿äÇÑ Â÷ÀÌÁ¡Àº ÅëÈ­Á¤Ã¥ÀÌ ¿ÏÈ­µÇÁö ¾Ê°í ±äÃàµÇ°í ÀÖ´Ù´Â Á¡ÀÌ´Ù. ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ ¿¬ÁØ(Federal Reserve)Àº ±Ý¸®¸¦ ÀλóÇÒ Áغñ°¡ µÆ´Ù. ±Ý¸®°¡ ¿©·¯ ¹ø ÀλóµÉ °ÍÀÌ´Ù. ¶ÇÇÑ Á¶½¬´Â ¸î ½Ê ³â ¸¸¿¡ ÃÖ¾ÇÀÇ ³­¹Î À§±â¸¦ °Þ´Â À¯·´¿¡¼­ »õ·Î¿î COVID-19 ¹°°áÀÌ ÀϾÁö ¾ÊÀ»±î ¿ì·ÁÇÑ´Ù.

 

On a three-month basis, Joshi says the inflationary impulse from soaring energy and food prices will choke growth. Bond yields could nudge higher as the Fed and other central banks respond, as he says the global stock market hasn¡¯t bottomed, and the U.S. dollar will rally

 

´ÙÀ½ 3°³¿ùÀ» ³»´Ùº¸¸é, ±ÞµîÇÏ´Â ¿¡³ÊÁö ¹× ½ÄÇ° °¡°ÝÀÌ ÃËÁøÇÏ´Â ÀÎÇ÷¹À̼ÇÀÌ ¼ºÀåÀ» ¾ïÁ¦ÇÒ °Å¶ó°í Á¶½¬°¡ ¸»Çß´Ù. ¿¬ÁØ°ú ±× ¿Ü Áß¾ÓÀºÇàµéÀÌ ´ëÀÀÇÔ¿¡ µû¶ó, ä±Ç ±Ý¸®°¡ ´õ ¿À¸¦ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù. ±Û·Î¹ú Áõ½Ã°¡ ¹Ù´ÚÀ» Ä¡Áö ¾Ê¾ÒÀ¸¸ç ¹Ì±¹ ´Þ·¯È­°¡ »ó½ÂÇÒ °Å¶ó°í Á¶½¬°¡ ÀüÇß´Ù.

 

 

20220312153054_5juKp5zzZN.jpg

 

 

 

But going out 12 months, he expects stocks, particularly in the U.S., to rise. He says the U.S. stock market has a long duration, of 30 years, meaning that the market should be valued at U.S. profits multiplied by the 30-year bond price. ¡°The short-term inflationary impulse combined with sanctions will be massively demand-destructive, at which point the cavalry of lower bond yields will charge to the rescue,¡± he says.

 

ÇÏÁö¸¸ Á» ´õ ±æ°Ô º¸¸é Áõ½Ã(ƯÈ÷ ¹Ì±¹ Áõ½Ã)°¡ »ó½ÂÇÑ´Ù´Â °Ô Á¶½¬ÀÇ 12°³¿ù Àü¸ÁÀÌ´Ù. ¹Ì±¹ Áõ½Ã´Â µà·¹À̼Ç(duration)ÀÌ 30³âÀ¸·Î ±æ´Ù°í Á¶½¬°¡ ¸»Çß´Ù. ±â¾÷ ÀÌÀÍ¿¡ 30³â¹° ä±Ç °¡°ÝÀ» °öÇؼ­ ½ÃÀå °¡Ä¡¸¦ °è»êÇÑ´Ù´Â ¶æÀÌ´Ù. ¡°´Ü±â ÀÎÇ÷¹ ¿äÀΰú Á¦Àç°¡ °áÇÕÇؼ­ ¼ö¿ä¸¦ ½É°¢ÇÏ°Ô À§Ãà½Ãų °ÍÀÌ´Ù. ±×¶§°¡ µÇ¸é ä±Ç ±Ý¸® Ç϶ôÀÌ ½ÃÀå ±¸Á¦¿¡ ³ª¼³ °ÍÀÌ´Ù.¡±

 

He recommends overweighting both the U.S. BX:TMUBMUSD30Yand Chinese BX:AMBMKRM-30Y30-year bonds, overweighting equities, and overweighting long-duration U.S. equities versus short-duration non-U.S. equities.

 

Á¶½¬´Â ¹Ì±¹°ú Áß±¹ÀÇ 30³â¹° ä±Ç°ú Áõ½Ã¿¡ ´ëÇؼ­ ºñÁßÈ®´ë ÀÇ°ßÀÌ°í, µà·¹À̼ÇÀÌ ÂªÀº ¹Ì±¹ ¿Ü Áõ½Ãº¸´Ù µà·¹À̼ÇÀÌ ±ä ¹Ì±¹ Áõ½Ã¸¦ ´õ ¼±È£ÇÑ´Ù.

 


0
ÃßõÇϱ⠴ٸ¥ÀÇ°ß 0
|
°øÀ¯¹öÆ°
÷ºÎÆÄÀÏ
  • im-502081.jpg

´Ù¸¥ÀÇ°ß 0 Ãßõ 0 »Ë»Ñ°³ÀÎÁ¤º¸À¯Ãâ»ç°í

´Ù¸¥ÀÇ°ß 0 Ãßõ 0 [* ºñȸ¿ø *]
  • ¾Ë¸² ¿å¼³, »óó ÁÙ ¼ö ÀÖ´Â ¾ÇÇÃÀº »ï°¡ÁÖ¼¼¿ä.
©¹æ »çÁø  
¡â ÀÌÀü±Û¡ä ´ÙÀ½±Û ¸ñ·Ïº¸±â